This year is very important for Microsoft. It is the year that the most popular Windows operating system, Windows 10, is reaching end of support. It is used by hundreds of millions of users worldwide and has a comfortable lead over its successor Windows 11.

End of support means that Microsoft won't create patches, security or otherwise, for the operating system anymore. Hold, that is not entirely correct. Customers who pay may extend support by a year if they use it at home, or by three years of they are a business.

For Microsoft, 2025 is the "year of the Windows 11 PC refresh". Microsoft's marketing department sees a clear path for all those Windows 10 customers: upgrade their devices to Windows 11 or, even better, purchase new PCs, ideally Copilot+ PC devices to fuel AI growth on Windows.

If Microsoft would have spent some time talking to its customers, it may have received different paths and answers.

• A few hundred million devices cannot be upgraded to Windows 11, because Microsoft changed the system requirements of Windows 11.
• An unknown number of users is perfectly happy with their Windows 10 PC. They see no reason to buy a new PC with Windows 11.

Microsoft can try to upgrade customer devices forcefully as much as it pleases, but it won't resolve the dilemma for a good chunk of loyal Windows 10 customers.

Where is Windows 12?

Back in 2022, Windows Central reported that Microsoft was switching to a three-year release cycle for Windows again. The source were people at Microsoft reportedly. That would have meant a Windows 12 release in late 2024, but that never happened.

What did happen was that Microsoft replaced Windows leadership in 2023. Panos Panay left for Amazon and Pavan Davuluri took over.

The specifics are muddy, but it is clear that there has been a strategic shift at Microsoft. The company tried to push AI and impress the world with an AI feature that would soon thereafter fall heavily on the company's feet.

Recall, a feature that takes screenshots of activity on Windows, process it with AI, and allow users to have chats with the AI about it, was dubbed a privacy and security nightmare.

Microsoft had to recall it, go back to the drawing board, and is just recovering from the blow. Recall is available again in test builds, in a version that is better but still seen as problematic by some. In all likelihood, Recall won't become a main selling point for Windows AI PCs.

Microsoft has another reason to avoid any mention of Windows 12. Any hint of a future version of Windows might give Windows 10 users the wrong idea about how to proceed. Once Windows 12 is mentioned, many might stay on Windows 10 until the next version of Windows is ready.

To avoid that, Windows 12, if it is in development, is a tightly kept secret at Microsoft.

Closing Words

Expect no mention of Windows 12 this year. Microsoft is focused on getting Windows 10 customers to upgrade to Windows 11 or buy new PCs with that version. The company could hint at the new operating system in 2026, likely near the end, but that is guesswork.